In a new pre-election poll by the Insa institute, the CDU and CSU have again moved closer to the SPD. Does Armin Laschet still have a chance to win?
CDU/CSU gain 1.5%
There are only a few days left until the Bundestag elections. According to current polls, the CDU/CSU are unlikely to come in first place, but both parties are still hoping to reverse the trend.
According to the latest poll by the Insa institute published on Monday, September 20 on behalf of the Bild newspaper, the CDU/CSU are slightly up. Together the two parties would gain 22% of the vote (+1.5%). The SPD is losing one percentage point. 25% of voters want to vote for it. The AfD (11%) and the FDP (12%) each lose half a percentage point compared to the previous week. The Left (6.5%) and the Greens (15%) remain stable.
Bundestag elections 2021: According to the Insa survey, a two-party alliance is also possible
From the perspective of possible coalitions, this could mean that a red-black, Jamaican coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the FDP (49%), as well as a red-green-red coalition (46.5%) would have a parliamentary majority (47%). A coalition made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens could also govern (52%).
The black-green and black-yellow coalition would not be able to govern according to a survey conducted by the Insa institute.
Hermann Binkert, head of the polling institute, said in an interview with the Bild newspaper: “The gap between the two big parties is melting. Both Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz can become chancellor.” However, the SPD candidate for chancellor has the advantage. “Scholz has more options,” says Binkert.
Consistently low support for Armin Laschet
Although the CDU/CSU has managed to gain in the polls recently, Armin Laschet himself has a low approval rating. According to a poll conducted by the Insa institute on behalf of the Bild am Sonntag newspaper, the 60-year-old is still well behind Olaf Scholz and on a par with Annalena Baerbock. In a direct election, 12% of respondents would vote for the Chancellor, one percentage point less than the previous week. Baerbock, like Laschet, would receive 12% of the vote (-2%), while Scholz would receive 31% (unchanged).